Duba Dubai!

Jim Crane talks about some ridiculous projects Dubai has created.



You underestimate Dubai at your own risk. Its concoctions look ridiculous to rational-minded people. It is difficult to believe the city can succeed. But it does. Over and over, for decades, Dubai has humiliated its naysayers.

This time, though, Dubai's mistake could inflict lasting damage. The projects behind the city's debts may have been flights of fancy – artificial islands larger than Hong Kong, water-sucking golf courses, and an amusement zone bigger than Orlando – but the debts behind them are not. The damage could take years to live down.

Dubai, with all of its excess, is the biggest thing to happen in the Arab world for 700 years. Its rise is part of an eastward shift in the Middle East's centre of gravity, from the old Mediterranean capitals to the brash new ones on the Gulf. Dubai's success is important for the region, and for the rest of us who would like to see more stability in this roiled part of the world, where the conflicts often spill into our streets.

Egypt, with its unemployed masses, could make use of Dubai's incentives for foreign investment. Syria might adopt its free trade ways. Iraq and Israel could use a dose of its religious tolerance. And the Gulf neighbours might streamline their bureaucracies as Dubai has.

Of course, Dubai also offers examples of what not to do. The emirate's abusive in-sourcing of labour, already commonplace across the Gulf, is deeply in need of reform. And in real estate, one hopes Dubai's crash has taught admirers what not to copy.

The emirate's rise has also come at the expense of the environment. Dubaians, with their monster 4x4s and chilled swimming pools, are the world's most prolific polluters.

Dubai's miscalculation this week could see its Gulf leadership passed to rivals in neighbouring Abu Dhabi or in Doha, in nearby Qatar. These more conservative cities are underpinned by energy earnings and don't need to take Dubai-style risks.

Right now, Dubai is still the most important service centre in a growing region. Sheikh Mohammed and his small team of advisers need to put things right to stay there.

Jim Krane is the author of Dubai: The Story of the World's Fastest City

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